Seattle Real Estate Market Watch – 8/17/2022

Hey y’all, Zach McDonald, your real estate agent with Real Property Associates, and this is another episode of our Seattle Market Watch. And I think maybe we’re gonna title these like Seattle Metro Market Watch. Still trying to figure out the title here, but we are looking at King County and Snohomish County data from the previous week. And I am looking at data as of eight 17, so the last week leading up to eight 17. And I think as we’re looking at this data, my hope as we look at these numbers every week, again, different update, completely different than the market updates that we do on a monthly basis. So if you want to dive more into the stats and the data, that’s where we’re gonna do that. I’ll provide some more commentary on a regular basis, but this is more of a, hey, quick hit type of update where you’re gonna get, um, some just tips from me, thoughts throughout the week.

I’ll share a few numbers, um, that have stood out to me week over week. But what I don’t wanna do is do the same thing that I do in those monthly market updates, if that makes sense. So again, king and Salish County stats from the prior week, and we’ll get into a rhythm with these. I’m still trying to figure it out too, so, um, any feedback or comments that you have on these to help make ’em better, would love that. Um, but let’s jump in. So we’re looking at the last week here in the Seattle metro area, and we’ve got 733 new listings, all right, between King and Snohomish County. And then again, this is residential listings. All right? So I’m not counting in the condos, um, in this, uh, particular number. I, it’s not that I have anything against condos, I like condos, uh, but the majority of people are looking at the single family houses.

So that’s kind of what I’m focusing on in these videos. Again, we can always talk about condo stats as well. Um, so maybe that’s a feedback, um, to add to these videos, but it just adds time, right? To do both, I think. Um, something I’ve noticed again and just wanna point out, we’re continuing to see list price reductions. So 751, so actually more reduced prices than new listings. Um, and if we jump down to the end here, um, of our market watch, little Snapshot 227 canceled listings. And I’ve mentioned previously that a lot of these canceled listings end up becoming new listings <laugh> on the market or reduced price listings, right? Just kind of a different way, old school way of going about a price reduction. So some of these are already re-listed, but interesting, um, again to look at pending sales. So the past few weeks I’ve been talking about how, you know what, we’re actually seeing more pending sales than we are seeing new listings and it’s been happening now. This is the third market watch that we’ve done and we saw it again. So this is the fourth week actually in a row that I’ve observed this as I pay attention to these and we’ve seen more pending sales than we have new listings. And by a considerable margin, 1024 pending sales over the last seven days, 733 new listings,

That’s a huge amount. So those market updates I’ve been talking about on a monthly basis here that we’ve been seeing more homes coming on the market than leaving the market, right? So we’re seeing houses sitting on the market. Inventory increasing and buyer activity has been slower. But what we’ve seen over the past few weeks, and I’m experiencing two on some of my listings, is that some of those listings that we’re sitting are starting to have a ton of showings. Ton of showings. So last week on one of my listings, it’s been on the market for longer than I’d like, right? A few months. Um, we’ve done a few different price reductions. Again, it’s just, it’s a tough time to have started listing as the market’s shifting. And this house had more showings this week than it had in the previous like four weeks. Part of it was a price reduction, but a lot of it is just, there’s a lot more people, again, out and about.

And I think a few things have happened. Um, number one, I think that buyers have finally gotten used to interest rates. And interest rates have hovered kind of in that low to mid fives for a while. They actually dipped over the past few weeks. They were up over six and they kind of hovered around the low fives. Now we’re kind of in that mid fives mark. So as of today, right, eight 17, uh, mortgage news daily, 5.48% on their survey for rate locks for the day. And I think if we were to look at this, um, on a daily basis, so if you’re interested in following rates, mortgage news daily’s a great source. Weekly. Freddie Mac has a survey that they do every week, but again, they’re kind of looking in the past, so they’re getting data from the week prior and then publishing it on a Thursday.

And I’d almost say this is better if you’re getting those daily updates cuz rates change every day. But it’s still great to have that weekly snapshot. But I think in this market, especially with rates moving and changing so much, I mean we’re seeing like half a percent swing sometimes in a day. Quarter percent swings on those mortgage rates. I think it’s important to pay attention maybe on a more daily basis, especially if you’re trying to find some type of comparison for maybe your own situation, right? Hey, this is what my lender’s quoting me, this is what I’m seeing. And again, every day they’re just changing a lot. Super volatile. But I think the big idea here is recalibration and I think sellers are finally adjusting to the fact that buyers don’t want to pay those same prices, which is why we’re seeing all those price reductions.

And I think that buyers are also getting used to those higher interest rates, bigger payments, again, I made a video a few months ago now it seems like, uh, where we talked about the affordability difference and the impact on buyers with the higher interest rates. And I think I used, if I remember correctly, three and a half percent to six and a half percent, which right now we’re well below that. Uh, but it was about a $1,400 payment difference on a million dollar mortgage. Okay? So maybe at at the, um, you know, five and a half interest rate, um, we’re gonna be less than that, but still that’s a big jump for a lot of people. And so people that were maybe borderline able to afford a house with the prices going up so much now, they couldn’t afford a house with those higher interest rates, right?

So the market was being pushed up. And now we’ve seen the market coming down a little bit to a place where buyers that can still buy that house they were wanting to buy, they’re probably paying a little bit less, right? Or willing to and able to pay a little bit less to get that same house that they were trying to buy. But that payment’s probably actually even a little bit higher for them. Now, hopefully in the future, what we see historically is that when the market is adjusting and we’re having recession talks, that real estate market will dip or level off a little bit and we’re kind of in that dip right now. But then once we have that recession affirmed by the government, what happens is then we start to see interest rates go down to stimulate the economy, right? We’re trying to slow it down right now, but once we see those interest rates declining again, then now we have cheaper money and that’s when the housing market typically takes off.

So if we look at the last 60 years, that’s the type of data we’re gonna see. We’re gonna see the housing market kind of leveling off or going down a little bit right before a recession, and then in a recession maybe flat or slightly up. But then once those rates drop and that typically happens middle to the end of a recession, then we start to see the housing market climb again. So I think right now we’re in an opportunity here for the next, nah, let’s say six to 12 months for buyers. I think that that opportunity isn’t going to be a drawn out opportunity like we saw back in 2008 to 12. And I made a video about that too, that you can check out. But I think there is an opportunity right now, you will have a higher payment in the short run, but I think that the payments and interest rates will eventually be coming down. And if you can get a better price now and lock that in, then once you refinance, you’ll have a better rate. That’s it for today’s market snapshot video. Again, we’re looking at and considering the stats over the past week in King and to Hammish County combined. If you wanna talk more about your situation and get a little bit more, uh, one-on-one advice, feel free to reach out to me directly. And again, if you haven’t subscribed to this channel, please consider doing so.