Seattle Housing Market Watch 4/29/2025

It’s weird because I’m on the border of Snohomish and King County, so I do about, it’s almost 50 50 give or take each month. Anytime we’re in Snohomish County, the numbers are a little bit different, but what we’ve seen in King County, certain pockets of King County, it’s multiple offers, et cetera. Right. We have seen, I think, a little bit of a breather in Snohomish County. I mean, we’ve had a really good month recently where clients are getting their offers accepted with and some of them are getting concessions.

Yeah, I think that’s been some of the shift we’ve been talking about over the past few weeks. And I think pending sales are up week over week, almost 800 pending sales last week. And it’s not necessarily slowing down buyer activity, but some of the competition Has Been slowing down. This is interesting. You’ll like this data point. So last year we had 150 more new listings this year versus last year in the same Week,

And we also saw 200 plus more price reductions this year versus last year. So we’ve already seen things slowing down earlier than we did at the same time last year. The spring kind of frenzy is starting to die out here in King and Snohomish County. So I do want to highlight though the mortgage market a little bit more because I talk about it briefly, but this is your thing. Mortgage News Daily said yesterday, 6.82% for the rates. Last year they were at 7.43, so considerably lower than last year, but we’re still seeing the market slowing down a little sooner. Last week rates were just under seven on their survey. What are we looking at today? What are you seeing? What are some of your thoughts about what rates right now?

Yeah, so anytime I talk rates one, I want to give you my MLO number. So I’m a licensed Washington State mortgage loan officer, MLO number 1, 1 5, 3 4 9. Anytime I talk interest rates, Zach, especially when we’re talking like averages or where are they at, you have to understand that VA mortgages, for example, for veterans that have served in the armed forces or FHA, which charges the high private mortgage insurance premium, their interest rates, their 30 year fixed rates are lower than conventional loans, right?

Yeah.

So when you talk about an average, make sure we’re understanding that. So I’m going to tell you in general, we’re locking anywhere between 6, 6, 2, 5 and 7% this week, Which is, it’s right in line you guys with where interest rates have been over the last two weeks. We saw rates drop about three or four weeks ago for two days, and then uncertainty with tariffs, boom, popped right back up. So the good news is, and I’ve said this in my updates right now, we’re seeing very steady mortgage rates. But the cool thing is, and I’m using this analogy, I like to be out on the water and I’m on my boat, the nose of the ship is pointed in the right direction. We’re just kind of floating around out there, barely moving, right?

That’s a good fishing Analogy. Yeah. Yeah. It’s point in the right direction. We’re moving in the right direction. We’re just not moving a whole lot,

Not moving very fast, kind of moving with the current, so to speak. Right, right. Yeah. There you go. There we go. What do you think over the next six months, I mean, we did a projection at the beginning of the year, there’s a lot of optimism. Do you still feel some of that optimism that we might see lower sixes by the end of the year, or do you think we’re going to still keep hovering in this mid sixes to low sevens range?

You mentioned a word right now, optimism. That’s all that matters to home buyers, and that’s all that matters to sellers is optimism. I’m seeing right now buyers that want to buy are actually buying and they’re getting a good deal. They’re buying within their budget. Yes, the mortgage payments a little bit higher because rates are a little bit higher. But here’s the thing, what I think for 2025, the rest of 2025, I think there’s going to be opportunities. Anytime you get a little bit of confusion, geopolitical, pandemic, anything like that, you’re going to see the markets move and flee. When I say the markets Wall Street fleet is safety, the safety typically of bonds. When that happens, that actually allows or helps mortgage rates to improve. So that’s one thing I would keep your eye on. So instead of me making a bold prediction for the rest of 2025, let’s talk about this real quick.

Let’s keep an eye on the tariff talks. Let’s keep an eye on Wall Street. Now, the third thing I want everyone to keep an eye on is the 10 year treasury. So the 10 year treasury, speaking of being out on the water, let’s say we had no electronics. We had to go old school like pirate ship. Okay, let’s do it. Yeah, a compass, right? The 10 year treasury is our compass for where 30 year fixed rates are going. So I’ve done a report, multiple reports. I talk about this all the time, follow the tenure. Now remember three weeks ago when rates dropped into the low sixes briefly, the tenure treasury was 3.83. Right now it’s about 4.4, 4.5. Right before they dropped, it was around 4.4, 4.5. So I have done a report that takes us all the way back into the 1970s, and I overlap the 10 year treasury in 30 year fixed rates.

And you will see they actually move almost parallel to each other up and down. So then what I did is I made two horizontal lines when the 10 year hit 4%, and when the 10 year treasury hit 3%, and then I circled where 30 year fixed rates were when the 10 year hit those marks. Guys, this is fascinating to know. Watch the 10 year treasury when the 10 year drops to about 4%, which it was a few weeks ago, 30 year fixed rates are 5, 7, 5 to 6%. We were almost to 6%. We only had two days. And so remember, mortgage rates moved a little slower, but we were getting there when the 10 year drop to 3% 30 year fixed rates were in the low fives. So instead of predicting where rates are going to go this year, keep an eye on the geopolitical news with the trade wars.

I don’t call ’em tariffs. The true word is the trade wars or trade negotiations. Keep an eye on that. See how that impacts the tenure. And as the tenure gets closer to four, that means mortgage rates are going to drop closer to six. As it gets closer into the threes, you’re going to see rates into the fives. I don’t know if that can happen this year. Here’s the third factor. The US government has made it very clear under Biden and under Trump that they are going to consider purchasing treasuries again, which will artificially lower 30 year fixed rate mortgages. That’ll cause the tenure to drop a little bit more. So keep an eye open for that. And if they do that, then of course rates are going to drop, but that’s artificial. That’s kind of artificial.

So I did a stat on my weekly market update last week, and these are nationwide numbers, 21%. So King County’s crushing the nation average for multiple offers per listing.

Yeah, it’s way more competitive. Yeah, way more competitive. Now, Snohomish County is a little bit slower. So Snohomish County average was a hundred percent of asking price. So it was just asking price, and that was the same as last week, the last few weeks in Snohomish County, it’s been slower. And same with the pendings with the multiple offers. So last week, 13% of sales in Snohomish County had an escalation addendum versus 16 the week before. So a little slower. 33% had multiple offers though at Snohomish County as well. So even though there were multiple offers, it wasn’t necessarily pushing the price up very much 30% the week before. So Snohomish County had more multiple offers this week by percentage, but less competitive on the price and terms because there were more inspection addendums this week than last week. And it’s fun data to see. So 36% of all the sales in soms County had an inspection addendum, which means more than half didn’t. So it’s still competitive. People are still removing contingencies and you’re explaining that you’re like, Hey, from my clients that are making purchases, they’re financing, some of them are getting concessions, some of them are still paying over asking price. So we’re in that kind weird transition. But what we are seeing, and this is something I’ve shared over the past month or so, is that we’re trending towards more inventory getting close to two months in Snow Machine, king County, which we all know starts to mean things are going to slow down.

And so normally that’s happening in July, June, July, and we’re in April and it’s already starting to happen. So take note, I think the next couple weeks, if we keep getting the same amount of inventory, we might see quite a bit of a slowdown as far as some of the competition. It’s not going to make prices drop, but it will make it a little bit easier for buyers to buy

Yeah. So thanks for tuning in guys. Thanks for joining us today, Dan. If you guys have questions about buying or selling real estate in King and s Stonebridge County, let me know if you want to connect with Dan. I’ll put his info in the comments or description as well as maybe a link to that update you talked about in the video as well. So we’ll see you guys next week. Thanks for tuning in.