Seattle Housing Market Watch 11/21/23

 In #Buying Real Estate, #Real Estate Investing, #Real Estate Tips, #Thoughts, Seattle Market Watch

Hey y’all, it’s Zach McDonald, your real estate agent with Real Property Associates, and this is my Seattle Housing Market Watch for November 21st, 2023.

Well, the moment is here when we’re starting to see the cliff in new listings. And last week and really for a while, I’ve been talking about how we will start to see the drop off in listings and specifically the drop off in the year over year numbers. And I looked back at last year’s numbers and it’s fun because we’ve been doing these housing market watches long enough to have a good perspective. And looking back at the same date last year when I filmed 11 21, 20 22, we had 449 new listings, which is still way lower than we were seeing. And again, seasonably more normal I would say. And this last week we had 293 new listings come on the market. That is a massive drop-off from the 449 last year. And last week we had 374 new listings compared to 442 the year prior. So, we saw the drop-off there.

We saw an even bigger drop off here this week compared to the same week last year. So again, the seasonal change in listing inventory is a trend towards fewer listings, but being able to compare with last year gives us some really good data. And we’re seeing a lot fewer listings right now in the King and Snohomish County area, so all of the Seattle metro area practically. And that is tough if you’re trying to buy a house right now, but it is putting us into a position for if you’re a seller, where there’s a lower inventory environment and that helps stabilize things. And that’s where we’ve been for the last, I don’t know, six months or so in a lot more stable housing market here in the Seattle area.

Now, if we look at some of the other numbers here, back on the market, we had 51 new listings versus 58. Let’s take a look at the list price reductions. This is going to be an interesting year over year comparison as well. If we look at last week and the price reductions week over week, we had 221 price reductions versus 307 last week. This is really interesting though. In 2022, we had 514 price reductions in the same week span, 514 price reductions for 221 the same week this year. So we were coming out of, and still really in the middle of this climate where we’re trying to figure out where home prices are going to settle out and houses were continuing to sell for less and less. And at this point, I think a big piece is that seller expectations have adjusted. So people aren’t trying to list for prices that were near or at the previous highs in 2022. I think that’s a big piece of it, but still this is a great indication of how the market has changed and adjusted.

We were in this free fall and now we’re in this place where we’re a lot more stable. It’s normal to have price reductions. You should have price reductions, right? There’s not going to be a market where you never have those, but this is a good sign that things are in a better spot than they were at the same time last year. And speaking of that, let’s just talk about interest rates real quickly while we’re at it because interest rates 7.33%, and if we look back last week, we were at 7.4%. We’ve continued over the past few weeks this downward trend, and we were up over 8%. Now we’re kind of in that seven and a quarter to seven and a half range, and we’ve continued down just slightly from where we were last week at 7.4%. If we look at last year, we were at 6.64% on mortgage news dailies, same survey, and rates have clearly gone up. They continued to go up, but now it seems like maybe we’re on the downward side of rates versus on the upward trend that we were on at the same time last year.

Let’s come back here now to the Market Watch stats. And another interesting piece here, if we look at the pending listings, we had 575 pending listings this week, last week, 601, not a big drop off. Last year in 2022, we had 643 pending sales. And it’s not a big difference given how much more supply there was in the market in King and Snohomish County. So I’m not surprised to see a little bit larger number there. The market was pretty slow. We had way more houses on the market and available than we do right now. So that number to me isn’t really a concern or a surprise. The number of sold listings we had 471 this last week versus 393 last week, so that number is up.

Starting to see more closings here in November. Some of those pending listings at the end of October that are now closing some of the fast closings. We have one that’s closing today. So we have some clients that are pretty excited to get their keys later this afternoon. And then the sold listings last year. Again, another fun comparison year over year 561 sold listings in 2022 as of the 1121 Market Watch. And I would say, again, that’s similar thoughts about that with the pending listings.

Not really surprised to see more sales last year closing. And a large part of that is because there were so many more houses on the market and available for purchase. And the market we find ourselves in now is this market where there’s just a lot less activity. There’s a lot less people buying. There are a lot fewer people selling. There’s a lot less new listing. Inventory is tight. And as interest rates are starting to creep down, I think that means, and again, we’ll see if that continues. I personally think it’s not going to continue quickly, but I don’t foresee or think that we’re going to start to see massive spikes in interest rates, at least as long as the Fed continues on the trajectory that we’re on, and that we continue to see encouraging inflationary data, which I think we will. So in that case, I think we’re going to start to see more buyer activity in 2024. We’re going to find ourselves in a really, really low inventory environment. And if 2023 at the beginning of the year was any indication, what happened is there was a lot of upward pressure on pricing, again, even with the higher interest rates. So I wouldn’t be surprised for us to have this lull for the rest of 2023 and maybe an opportunity to buy something at a lower price with a little less competition. But as we head into 2024, I suspect that we’re going to find ourselves in a very competitive Seattle real estate market.

Thanks so much for watching this week’s Seattle Housing Market Watch. I hope that it was valuable for you. If you have questions about your specific situation and you want to run things by me, I’d be happy to be a resource for you. And of course, if you haven’t subscribed yet to the channel and you want to see more updates like this on a regular basis, please hit that subscribe button.

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